UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is likely prepping for dinner with President George Bush at the White House as I type this blog entry. I will assume, safely I'll guess, that Mr. Blair will not have the chance to peruse this BASIC blog before he's off for an all-American feast. But aside from Iraq and the Middle East peace process--which understandably has center stage with the death of Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat--here are some issues I would like to be discussed between the two leaders, particularly impacting the US-UK "special relationship."
Iran
The United Kingdom has been negotiating, along with France and Germany, a deal to convince Iran that pursuing an indigenous nuclear program is not in its interests. All sides are posturing, with Iran threatening to pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Europeans claiming a deal is nearly reached, and the United States considering bringing the issue to the UN Security Council regardless of what happens. November 25th, in just a few short weeks, is D-Day (or I-Day?), when the IAEA meets to decide the progress of Iran, whether it is meeting its nonproliferation obligations, and whether more stringent measures should be taken.
The U.K. pulls a lot of weight in this situation, and Mr. Blair has an opportunity to take the lead in a difficult issue that has not received enough attention in the last four years. With options constrained on many sides, I hope that Mr. Blair will be willing to present options which are stringent, but fair.
Nuclear Weapons
Earlier this year, the US and UK updated an important but not often discussed document tying together the strategic interests of the United States and the United Kingdom: the US-UK Mutual Defense Agreement, as it is commonly called. Among other things, the MDA establishes close cooperation between the two countries on nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons delivery issues. Dating back to 1958, this agreement looks all the more contentious now, when nuclear non-proliferation is the hot topic, the United States is accusing several other countries of not living up to their NPT commitments, and the US has gone to war under the guise of stopping WMD in Iraq. Moreover, as soon as next year, the UK could begin internal discussions on the future of their nuclear weapons, which now all reside on UK Trident submarines. Any upgrading and modernization will be done with US assistance, further demarking the line between the nuclear haves and have-nots. More information on the US-UK MDA can be found here.
Mr. Blair could take the upper hand and begin to discuss practical means by which nuclear weapons could take a reduced role in US-UK and US-NATO security strategy, rather than press for the continuance of a policy out of step with the security realities of the 21st century.
2005 NPT Review Conference
Next spring, the NPT Review Conference in New York will meet at a time when many believe the Treaty is under dire strain and in danger of collapse. The central debate has focused on whether all states are meeting their nonproliferation obligations on one hand, and whether the nuclear-weapon states (most notably the United States) is meeting its disarmament obligations on the other. Meanwhile, the set of outlying states grows, with no solutions in sight, as India, Pakistan, and Israel are known or assumed to have nuclear weapons arsenals yet remain outside of the NPT, and other states such as Iran, North Korea, and Brazil skirt around the permissable edges. Whether the NPT can withstand the forces that threaten to pull it apart or at least render it dead in the water remains very much to be seen.
Mr. Blair again has the opportunity to bridge the gap between the US stance and that of nearly every other state in the NPT. While the UK has always been a staunch ally at the NPT conferences, there is no more pressing time to assert the leverage gained by being that staunch ally than now.
Missile Defense
The UK has already signed agreements with the US allowing the radars in North Yorkshire, UK, at Fylingdales AFB to be upgraded, for use in the US missile defense system now being "deployed" with interceptors in Alaska and California. The Fylingdales radars are seen as a critical part of the eyes of the system when it is expanded--potentially in the near future--to have added potential capability against Middle East ballistic missile launches (i.e., from Iran).
More contentious, though, is the recent revelation that, along with agreements on radar sites (also including the nearby Menwith Hill), the US and UK signed agreements that would open the door to basing missile interceptors on UK soil. This would be a major strategic advancement in US missile defense efforts, and one which has not received adequate attention, debate, or vetting on either side of the Atlantic. Mr. Blair should express caution on the speed and steps of this potential undertaking, and ensure that a full and thorough conversation can be held on the topic, within the US Congress and UK Parliament, as well as among the public constituencies.
It's natural that President Bush's first meeting after the election should be with our close ally Mr. Blair. And it's natural for them to focus on the topics staring them in the eyes--Iraq and the death of Mr. Arafat. But these other issues will push themselves to the fore whether the US and UK are ready for them or not sooner rather than later, and they will not wait another four years.
Better put on some strong coffee, it's going to be a late night.
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