"You Must Remember This...

...a test is just a test..."

Back in the good old days when men were men and songs were sung in smoky Casablanca piano bars, the Missile Defense Agency or the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, or whatever you wanted to call the Pentagon agency in charge of missile defense programs, used to conduct tests. Ok, not really. But they used to promise to conduct tests, and lots of 'em, of whatever system they were working on that year. Take a look at the current system--GMD (Ground-based Midcourse Defense) that has been in the works for the last several years in Alaska, California, Nebraska, and elsewhere, and has been the darling program that the Bush administration has promised to deliver.

GMD (which, fancy that! is not a Bush invention at all but a carryover from the Clinton administration) was supposed to go through about 30 developmental intercept tests, before it went on to about 10 or so additional more rigorous tests--following which, with enough successes and reliability gained, the Pentagon would decide whether to field the system or not.

Several years ago, the Missile Defense Agency promised Congress and the American people that intercept tests would occur frequently and with more complexity--they thought the likelihood would be about 4 a year, or every 3 months, while adding aspects that make the test more realistic--a night-time launch, some simple decoys, different trajectories, different speeds, that sort of thing. But that's all pretty much gone by the boards.

The last intercept test was almost exactly 2 years ago--and it failed, bringing the success rate to 5 out of 8 attempts total. It's a far cry from the 30 tests originally envisioned.

Since then, the MDA has been busy trying to fix the various problems that existed or cropped up subsequently, tried to figure out management issues, and tried to deliver on the Bush promise of a deployed missile defense system by the end of his first term.

Now, after an extensive hiatus, during which the MDA has been touting its success in things like getting a Boeing 747 to fly, the Pentagon has announced that in the next several days, there will indeed be a test--a "fly-by" test, mind you, that is not to be confused with an intercept test. If it intercepts, that's all well and good, but it's not their intention (wink wink, nudge nudge).

Whatever the result, the MDA will be under tremendous pressure to declare the system operational, no matter how they couch it--"initial deployment," or "limited readiness," or whatever, regardless of whether the upcoming test intercepts, merely flies, or is cancelled.

No matter the outcome, MDA can't make up 22 missing intercept tests with one "fly-by" attempt, assuming that you even count their failures as successes. Even with a "success," the system still has a long way to go, all the while continuing to eat up around $10 billion a year.

The Pentagon has been working on national missile defenses for 30 years, with no deployed, effective system to show for it, and $150 billion down the drain. Yet 10 years after the end of the Cold War, their still singing that same ol' tune...

"..the fundamental things apply, as time goes by."

Here are the links to the CNN and Global Security Newswire stories that are reporting on the upcoming test.